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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."